Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Round 2 Preview

Ok, so with the teams having been announced, there is a number of new debutants to be picked up, a few returning stars, and as always a couple of questionable inclusions.

Big Ins: Heath Shaw, Scott Thompson, Lenny Hayes, Simon Black
Big Outs: Matthew Stokes, Travis Tuck, Ben Cousins

New Rookies
Def: Alex Rance (Rich), Michael Quinn (Ess)
Mids: Robin Nahas (Rich), David Zaharakis (Ess), Liam Picken (WB), Brett Meredith (Syd)
Fwds: Simon Hogan (Geel), Wade Thompson (PA)
A number of interesting selections here. With Raines' injury last weekend and Hurley's injury this morning, the inclusion of Rance will offer some relief to anyone looking to downgrade. He'll should be able to hold down his position at least until Raines comes back. I don't think that Quinn will be of much use, he is only 19 and having come over from Ireland may take a while to adjust to the game.
In the mids, both Nahas and Zaharakis are likeable types, although it might be difficult for Nahas to hold down a spot in the improving Richmond midfield. Zaharakis could be a good one though, especially those looking to drop Anthony. With the apparent lack of talented inside mids at Essendon, a couple of good games could pay handsome dividends. Picken probably won't get enough games to of any value. It's a bit hard to get a reading on Meredith. He has only played two pre-season games for Sydney, but as they fall down the ladder, they will prbably look to rebuild.
Now, I think the two forward rookies are very risky but could pay off. Hogan especially could score highly, playing for Geelong, but is questionable to get games. Thompson is more likely to play, but being an elevated Rookie, could be demoted when Trengove comes back.

Now onto Captain Choices.
There appears to be a plethora of options this week, but I'll pick 10 players, some must-have captains, others to avoid.
1. Gary Ablett
If you have him in your team, make him captain this week. The Cats play in Geelong, they play Richmond and he is Gary Ablett. I can't see why you'd need any other information. But if you really want, he has a career average of 96 against them, and averages 121 in his last four games against the Tigers. He'll be my C
2. Dean Cox
After many expected Cox to rip the Lions a new one last week, he failed only scoring a 99 (terrible, I know!) However this weeks he comes up against Port Adelaide, without Dean Brogan. There is not too much statistical evidence to support Cox, having only averaged 73 against them in his career and only 88.6 in his last 5, but coming up against an old Brendan Lade, expect Cox to score well.
3. Jimmy Bartel
Pretty much the same as Ablett, except if it there's a chance of rain in Geelong on saturday, get on Bartel. The best wet weather player in the game, he oftens rocks up to Kardinia Park in flippers if there's a flood, just to get an advantage of the opponents. Career average of 96 against the Tiges and averages 123 in his last 3. Fuck!!
4. Lance Franklin
In previous years, people have avoided picking a captain against Sydney, as they used to lower opponents scores. However, as they appear to be getting older and crapper, Buddy could be a good pick. If he has his kicking boots on. As we saw last week, against a younger opponent Buddy is cpable of turning a match around and without Leo Barry and Tadhg Kennelly the Sydney defence will have trouble keeping Buddy down. All data is irrelevant for this game, and with an expected big crowd at ANZ Stadium Buddy could be on for a giant score. A bit more risky than the above three.
5. Matthew Pavlich
Pav loves playing Essendon. In his last 11 games against them he's broken triple figures 9 times. including a monster 168 back in 07. He averages 104 against them and is usually one of the more consistent players in the league. But with the lack of a decent pre-season and the lack of anyone else decent on his team, it could be slightly more challenging for Pav this time around. I'd still expect him to score well, but he might not pull out the 140 you want from your captain. A strong choice but.
Alternatives: Brendon Goddard, Jonothan Brown, Joel Corey, Joel Selwood, Brent Harvey.

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