This weekend may very well be the worst weekend in DT history. Definitely in my history of the game. It was bad enough on sunday night, with rumours over Ablett, Richo and Beams missing this weekends game, but as the week as gone on, it has gotten worse and worse. With the announcement of this weekends teams, many coaches have given up. Houlihan, Ablett, Richo, Beams, Meesen, Greenwood, Lucas, Guerra, McMahon, Hartlett, and Carrazzo could all be important players in any team. But here's the silver lining; Brown, Cousins and Simmonds all return for the Tiges, Sidebottom could get onto the list of people with funny names who have played AFL, a couple of likable types in de Boer and Cockie have retained their position and some more interesting debuts from rookies this weekly, mainly Yarran, Davenport and Sidebottom. But I guess we'll just have to grin and bare it.
I think the question that is on most coaches min is the Ablett. Do I trade or hold on? In the end it's up to. I'm in a conundrum over this myself. After scans, it is believed that the great man will miss 2-3 matches. However, I think Geelong will nurse him through it, perhaps pushing him out for 4 games. Can you afford to have $510,100 sitting on your bench for 4 weeks? Personally, I think I'll hang onto him. It will leave my midfield a bit weaker until I can upgrade Rich to Swan or maybe Corey.
But hopefully I can help you to a decent score this week.
Essendon v Hawthorn
Despite his below average form, Buddy loves playing Essendon. And he'll have to kick 8 to achieve his BE of 132 this week. But with Dustin Fletcher out and Paddy Ryder having to carry the ruck role, Buddy and Roughy could have a night out. All signs point at a blow-out. No Lucas, no Hille, and I can't see how Essendon can post a winning score. After pre-season hype, Travis Tuck has had an interrupted start to the season, but is coming back now and his scores are slowly improving. It seems the Hawks are starting to get some wins on the board, and their scores will improve also. Essendon this week has called up Tom Bellchambers to support Paddy Ryder in the ruck, not that this is much use to us, but the inclusion of Bachar Houli could be interesting. One who many tipped to break-out this year has struggled for games, but could be set for a long stint which could pay dividends.
Pick-Up: Jarryd Roughead; I've never been a fan of picking the second forward of a club, with Roughead and Bradshaw being the obvious two. But Roughy seems two have taken over the number one role with Buddy out of form and proved it with a solid 142 last week.
Watch: Grant Birchall; with the Back problems of last year still occuring, Birchall could be a solid pick-up, as long as he stays injury free. He's a proven consistent scorer and can get you the odd 100.
Richmond v Brisbane
Finally, Richmond have given us something to talk about, even with Richo's injury. The inclusions of Simmonds, Brown and Cousins are very important to a number of coaches who have at least one of the above. With his early season form, Simmonds has a very high breakeven, around 130, and he is unlikely to achieve it. Having said that, he will be out to prove himself and up against a week ruck division. Likewise Brown, who apparently was out of form starting of the season (111 and 135, is pretty terrible) will struggle to achieve his BE, but he is a gun who will maintain his scores. As for the Lions, they still should get over the Tigers, as they seem to be more even across the board. Despite all their scoring in the pre-season, they are not as strong as they appeared. Having said that, players like Adcock and Drummond appear frequently in teams, and both can be ball magnets at any time.
Pick-Up: Mark Coughlan; after years ont he sideline, Coughlan has come back strongly and is set to rise in price admirably. He's not gonna stay cheap for long.
Drop: Daniel Bradshaw; after his solid return to the game last year, he isn't getting any younger. With much of the attention going to Brown, Bradshaw is past his prime.
Geelong v Sydney
Now, this is an interesting game. With the loss of the game's superstar, Gary Ablett, this game loses a bit of attention. Not too much, but a little. From a DT point of view, the inclusions of Cameron Ling and Tom Harley are not too important, except that Andrew Mackie will now be freed up more. Now is the week to get Mackie. After a solid two weeks, he has a makeable BE and will rise in price. The Sydney of the past appear to have gone, with teams now scoring more freely against them. I wouldn't be too afraid of making Bartel or Chapman captain, especially Chapman who is now the premier Baldnut in the Geelong team. And I'm going to use this chance to say that I hate Shannon Byrnes. Should he can be a solid player, but too often his turnovers are costly. Would much prefer to see Hogan or Djerukura getting a run. As for Sydney, the returns of Hall and O'Loughlin should hopefully coinicide with a return to form a Ryan O'Keefe. ROK has been a favourite of coaches for a number of years, and if he can straigthen himself up, then he will be a great pick-up.
Pick-Up: Tom Hawkins; the much maligned forward has shown glimpses this year of what he could become. I've always thought that the expectation on him by the media was too great, even now for someone his size, it's too early to expect him to be a superstar. But he could turn it on.
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
For so long, North Melbourne have got a lot out of an average list but it appears the shinboner spirit is slowly dying. The dropping of Levi Greenwood means their is only one playing rookie this weekend who hasn't risen in price yet, Luke Pratt at Freo. In my opinion, Jack Ziebell is the best rookie so far this year. An honourable mention goes to Daniel Rich, but JZ is consistently pulling out 70-plus scores, and if it wasn't for his first game, he would have scored more than Rich. The other big part of this game is the changes for Port Adelaide. The injury to Hamish Hartlett will hirt a number of coaches who brought him in last week, but the inclusion of Jason Davenport will please many. Davenport spent a few years down in Sleepy Hollow and as a mature aged debutant, he will be a very likable type.
Pick-Up: Gavin Urquhart; only his second year in the system, but alrady he ahs proven to be no one season wonder. Has scored back-to-back hundreds now and will be a good 7th back if he can keep it up.
Carlton v Fremantle
How different would Carlton be feeling if that kick had gone through? A win would have put them in third and had the momentum to come into this week. A much improved Fremantle have won two on the trot and will not be easybeats. It's no wonder that Freo's improvement has conincided with Pavlich's form. His two highest scores for the year have come in the last two weeks and will hopefully continue to rise. I made the mistake of picking Franklin over him last week but the Pav is starting to rise. I'm sure many people will need to watch Mat de Boer again. After losing the battle of the rookies against Adam Cockie last week, de Boer has got the backing of his coach, and will hopefully come good. He is at a bargain basement price and will be a good trade for anyone still on Robinson. If you followed my advice about Stephen Hill early in the season then you'll be laughing. Broke his 100 cherry last week and has a negative BE this week. Nice.
Watch: Chris Yarran; I think almost every decent coach would have had him in their planteams at some point and finally he gets to debut. He is a high-priced rookie, so unless he scores well, we may not be interested.
Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
After scraping past his BE last week, Jared Petrenko faces a new challenge to hold his spot. And with the surprise dropping of Houlihan, many coaches are relying on him to get a gig. Otherwise there is not too much new information for this game. Apart from my boys, I'm very interested to see how Robert Murphy plays this game. There is no way he'll achieve his Breakeven, but he can be a good player and averaged 89 last year. If you haven't already, sell Taylor Walker, he has peaked in price and abrring a massive score, will continue to drop. Unfortunately, there is not too much on offer, unles you want to take a risk on Sidebottom.
Watch: Daniel Giansiracusa; I've always liked this guy, but his output has been down this year. Maybe because of the improvement in Higgins, but I'd love to see him improve, in order to trade Skipworth for him.
West Coast v Melbourne
Despite going down by 43 points last weekend, Melbourne weren't terrible. If Melbourne play the same way again the should win. But who knows? A match between two average teams, both of whom have very little to offer in fantasy terms. With Meesen injured and no recall for Spencer, Cox will have a ball. Will be my captain this week, with little resistance expected from Melbourne. And I really hope that Cheney will be named, just to ease the pressure a bit.
Pick-Up: Adam Cockie; it's either him or de Boer. Cockie has a higher ceiling but mught struggle to get games. If he can play well this week then get on him.
Collingwood v StKilda
The final game of the round is on Monday Night (groan). This means we will not know the final teams until after lock-out. Judging by the bench, I think Sidebottom will play, or at least I hope so. Josh Fraser proved me wrong last week and continues to score well, even with the media pressure. After his 8 drops out of his price calculations, I'd be looking at Koscitzke as well. He started the season well and had it not been for his hammy, he could have been one of the better rucks so far. But the StKilda Juggernaut continues to role on. I think if you really wanted to trade out Ablett, then Swan should be your target. He's is about 50k cheaper than Bartel and is a proven performer. Will get you cash for other upgrades as well. A little sidenote is the possible clash of Zac Dawson and Anthony Rocca. If you remember back in 2006, Rocca tore Dawson a new one. I can't see it happen again. Not if the Saints continue to play as they have been.
Pick-Up: Steele Sidebottom; I think everyone will end up getting him in their teams. Eligible as both a forward and a mid, he offers a great downgrade target in a few weeks for Brown, Beams, Rich, Ziebell or pretty much anyone. Should get games as well.
Captain Choices
No Ablett... :(
1. Dean Cox
2. Lance Franklin
3. Jonathan Brown
4. Chad Cornes
5. Paul Chapman
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